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Life expectancy calculator

User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 21:03

Hi Guys,

Browsing on the Internet I came across this life expectancy calculator for PCa.

I don't know how good it is, and doubt that it is accurate, because it doesn't include important factors such as T stage.

However I don't want to tempt fate by poking fun at it.

I assume that the age to insert is our age at diagnosis.

I would be interested to learn if any of you have already outlived the prediction of the calculator?

You can find it at:

https://www.roswellpark.org/apps/prostate_cancer_estimator/

:)

Dave

User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 22:06

I think you have misunderstood the calculator. What it tells you is how long, on average, he would have lived if he hadn't had treatment NOT how long he has left now.

The lead time is inserted if he was diagnosed through routine screening rather than because he had symptoms.

Dave, it was created by looking at the stats of men who stayed on AS and never had radical treatment so probably safe to assume the T stage was almost always T1 (or possibly T2a)

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards." Soren Kierkegaard

User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 22:12
Looks rubbish to me...
User
Posted 11 May 2016 at 09:11

Did not make much sense to me. All I know is I,m 64 today and still here four and a half years after diagnosis with G9 and bone mets. I would settle for that for now and hope just to keep going. Live long and prosper someone once said!

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User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 21:32
Hello. I had a look because I'm nosy. I filled it in out of curiosity. I have no idea what lead time means. It came up with 19 years. (Assuming that means he will live 19 years after diagnosis) Meaning my other half would die aged 76. I am hoping he will live longer that that. So hopefully it is not true. It must have been published for a reason though!
User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 22:06

Calculators have a poor record but for fun had a go.

A lead time of 1 year gave just under 8 years. A lead time of 10 years gave just under 15 years. So far I've achieved over 11.5 years

A calculator with the aim of promoting screening then?

(Lead time = years via screening rather than via symptoms)

User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 22:06

I think you have misunderstood the calculator. What it tells you is how long, on average, he would have lived if he hadn't had treatment NOT how long he has left now.

The lead time is inserted if he was diagnosed through routine screening rather than because he had symptoms.

Dave, it was created by looking at the stats of men who stayed on AS and never had radical treatment so probably safe to assume the T stage was almost always T1 (or possibly T2a)

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards." Soren Kierkegaard

User
Posted 10 May 2016 at 22:12
Looks rubbish to me...
User
Posted 11 May 2016 at 09:04

Hi Lyn,

Thanks, it's not often that I am right, and I got it wrong again!

However, the preturbing thing for me is that it predicted 15 years survival after diagnosis with Gleason 9, which seems pretty reasonable with treatment, let alone on AS?

:)

Dave

User
Posted 11 May 2016 at 09:11

Did not make much sense to me. All I know is I,m 64 today and still here four and a half years after diagnosis with G9 and bone mets. I would settle for that for now and hope just to keep going. Live long and prosper someone once said!

User
Posted 11 May 2016 at 11:32

The bottom line of 'Lead' paragraph in my mind says the value of it:

"there is no consensus amongst researchers on how to estimate lead time and lead time estimate may differ based on age."

User
Posted 13 May 2016 at 11:34

Hi, davekirkham, and others here treading the prostate path.  Re life expectancy calculators (nomograms) The best I've been able to find and use seem to be at the Memorial Sloan Kettering. This one for post-op patients offers probabilities based on Gleason and doubling time:                                                                                    https://www.mskcc.org/nomograms/prostate/post-op

 

Hope this is of some help. (I took great comfort from the predictions, even tho I am G9 with a 4 months PSA doubling time.

User
Posted 13 May 2016 at 16:25

Important to note that the Sloan Kettering is based on American data where diagnosis and treatment options are quite different. British men do significantly worse than SK predicts so the UK hospitals using SK usually add in an extra computation for their own area.

"Life can only be understood backwards; but it must be lived forwards." Soren Kierkegaard

User
Posted 30 May 2016 at 16:04

Hi , new to the site .if the calculator is correct i do not need to decide which of the 4 option to choose. Given 24 year which is plenty for me .

am 63 ,very fit & healthy , for 6 years have been monitored via psa , spiked this time from 7 to 14 

and mri scan showed something. 

any thoughts , advise ,encouragement 

Mike

User
Posted 30 May 2016 at 17:13

Hello Mike, a word of caution re the nomograms. The Memorial Sloan Kettering website links to several as well as providing its own. They measure general life expectancy, prostate size, PSA doubling time, pre-op and post-op survival,  plus survival after salvage radiation.

They are all well-researched, based on large samples and are generally quite applicable across the pond. But I would stress that most of them depend on various clinical inputs - such as Gleason score from biopsy - without which they simply cannot work.

It sounds like you have a rapidly rising PSA and if your urologist ordered an MRI then the assumption must be that you have PCa indications which need to be investigated. He may next suggest a biopsy and, possibly, a bone scan to assess whether there has been metastasis.

If you go for the biopsy and the Gleason score is high then it would be good to talk to both a surgeon and an oncologist. The reason? The first branch in the forking paths that is PCa will be: cut (surgery) or burn (radiation) It is important that you have both options clearly on the table if there is any suspicion that the cancer has got through the prostate wall.

I opted for the Da Vinci cyborg operation. I was similar age, similar PSA level as yourself. The MSK post-op nomogram combines several variables and can give realistic estimates. These are, however, merely probabilities, not certainties and should be seen as ranging shots, giving a general idea of future prospects.

Now that you seem to be treading the prostate path - its a perfidious little beastie the rogue cell - you will have a lot to take on board. This site is very helpful with a vast amount of useful information to be winnowed out. Hope you find this contribution helpful.

User
Posted 31 May 2016 at 00:02

Mike has started his own thread (conversation) which is a good idea.

Barry
 
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