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New predictive Nomogram "Star-Cap"

User
Posted 04 Aug 2021 at 09:38

This new Nomogram is getting some critical acclaim, may help with treatment decisions.

https://umich-biostatistics.shinyapps.io/star-cap/

 

User
Posted 06 Aug 2021 at 18:11

Thanks for posting this

 

In my case, 0.5 % chance of dying within 5 years and a 2 % chance within 10 years. So, helpful to know but like all things of this nature it is like playing a game of poker with professionals and this being your first ever poker game.

Edited by member 07 Aug 2021 at 10:00  | Reason: Not specified

User
Posted 06 Aug 2021 at 22:58

Interesting that I have a 4 in 100 chance of dying up to 10yrs after the op.  Or 96 out of 100 of surviving.   

Any mention of Gleason 4 multiplies 10yr chance by around 4 but to still a low chance.  3+3 is 1%.

Most people I think would be relieved to hear such figures during diagnosis.  Even if I was T4 my figure only went to 8% which was much better than I'd have thought.

Do we believe it?

 

Edited by member 06 Aug 2021 at 23:00  | Reason: Not specified

User
Posted 06 Aug 2021 at 23:56
Odds are probably better than that as like all nomograms it's validated using historical cases and diagnosis and treatment have improved over the last 30 years.
User
Posted 07 Aug 2021 at 00:28

Well I tend to use prostate.predict.nhs and that gives me a 50% chance of being dead in 15 years, whereas this new nomogram gives me a 38.7% chance of being dead in 15 years. So I guess the new nomogram is better for me, as it has cut my chance of dying by 11.3%.

Dave

 
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